When you come to a fork in the road, take it. - Yogi Berra
Copyright 2004 David A. Wheeler, Ph.D., PHR, CMT
Last updated 10/11/05 04:09 PM
Decision Making Styles
- *Rational Decision Making: Gathering data, weighing your
choices, make decision
- Hypervigilant: Gathers too much data, can never make
- *Ethical: based on moral principles
- *Intuitive: Based on a knowledge of who you are and your
- Impulsive: Does what feels best now
- Dependent: relies on others to make decisions
- Avoidant: denies that decision has to be made
Seven Step Rational Decision Making Process
Identify Core Problem Area
Gather Data (Matrix, SEU)
Commit to Decision
Just DO IT
Rational Decision Making
Subjective Expected Utility
- Matrix Method
Fill this table out for each possible
|For Self:Short Term
|For Self:Long Term
|For Others: Short Term
|For Others: Long Term
Subjective: your own opinion
Expected: probability 0 - 1.0
Utility: how valuable it is to you, ratio scale, -100
SEU = Subjective probability X Utility
|Time for fun
Yogi Berra: When you come to a fork in the road,
Decision Making Skills are only necessary when there is a
Blockage for Self-Expression
Creativity built stone by stone.
-Jeanne Marie Laskas (this link not available on the
WWW, only on my hard drive.)
If things are falling into place, it must be right
More and More experience
Wear the hat:
Flip a Coin
Internal feeling that someone else is right about your
Luck happens to those who are prepared for it
Estimation: How many grains of sand are there on a beach.
Don't just guess.
Don't do too
The Balance: the heavier decision is the one you want
Chocolate vs Vanilla
Wisdom of Crowds
A group of people are more likely to come up with the
correct answer than an expert if the following conditions are met:
1. Independent decision making
Diversity of opinion
3. A means of aggregating the
Errors in Intuitive Decision Making
Algorithm - a method of guaranteeing that you get the
right answer. Usually impossible with human behavior (chaos theory)
and usually takes to long if it is possible.
a rule of thumb. The way the brain really processes information.
Fast but may not come up with right answer.
Memory Bias: once an event has occurred, you cannot
remember how you would have thought about it before hand.
Overconfidence: if you believe you are 100% right, you are
actually right 85% of the time.
Polarity Shift: in a
group, you go more to the extreme than you would have by yourself
People gamble to avoid a sure loss.
do not gamble with a sure gain.
Ethical Decision Making
Kohlberg - moral
(requires taking a stand)
Understanding of who you
are and what you believe (requires taking a stand)